M'zaka ziwiri zapitazi, msika wa semiconductor wakhala ndi nthawi yayitali kwambiri, koma kuyambira theka lachiwiri la chaka chino, kufunikira kunasintha pang'onopang'ono ndipo adakumana ndi nthawi yopumira.Osati kukumbukira kokha, komanso makampani opanga makina opangira ma semiconductor akhudzidwa ndi kuzizira, ndipo msika wa semiconductor ukhoza "kusinthira kukula" chaka chamawa.Pachifukwa ichi, makampani opanga semiconductor ayamba kuchepetsa ndalama zogulira malo ndi kumangitsa malamba;Yambani kupewa mavuto.
1. Kukula kwapadziko lonse kwa semiconductor koyipa kwa 4.1% chaka chamawa
Chaka chino, msika wa semiconductor wasintha kwambiri kuchoka ku boom kupita ku bust ndipo ukudutsa nthawi yosinthika kwambiri kuposa kale.
Kuyambira 2020, amsika wa semiconductor, yomwe yasangalala ndi chitukuko chifukwa cha kusokonezeka kwa chain chain ndi zifukwa zina, yalowa m'nyengo yozizira kwambiri mu theka lachiwiri la chaka chino.Malinga ndi SIA, kugulitsa kwa semiconductor padziko lonse lapansi kunali $ 47 biliyoni mu Seputembala, kutsika ndi 3% kuyambira mwezi womwewo chaka chatha.Uku ndiye kutsika koyamba kwa malonda m'zaka ziwiri ndi miyezi isanu ndi itatu kuyambira Januware 2020.
Ndi ichi ngati poyambira, zikuyembekezeredwa kuti msika wapadziko lonse lapansi wa semiconductor udzakula kwambiri chaka chino ndikubwezeretsanso kukula chaka chamawa.Kumapeto kwa Novembala chaka chino, WSTS idalengeza kuti msika wapadziko lonse lapansi wa semiconductor ukuyembekezeka kukula ndi 4.4% poyerekeza ndi chaka chatha, kufikira $ 580.1 biliyoni yaku US.Izi zikusiyana kwambiri ndi kuwonjezeka kwa 26.2% kwa malonda a semiconductor chaka chatha.
Kugulitsa kwa semiconductor padziko lonse lapansi kukuyembekezeka kukhala pafupifupi $ 556.5 biliyoni chaka chamawa, kutsika ndi 4.1 peresenti kuyambira chaka chino.Mu August yekha, WSTS inaneneratu kuti malonda a msika wa semiconductor adzakula ndi 4.6% chaka chamawa, koma kubwereranso kuzinthu zoipa mkati mwa miyezi 3.
Kuchepa kwa malonda a semiconductor kudachitika chifukwa chakuchepa kwa katundu wanyumba, ma TV, mafoni am'manja, makompyuta apakompyuta, ndi zinthu zina zowonjezera, zomwe zinali mbali yofunika kwambiri.Pa nthawi yomweyo, chifukwakukwera kwa mitengo padziko lonse lapansi, mliri watsopano wa korona, nkhondo ya ku Russia ndi Chiyukireniya, kuwonjezeka kwa chiwongoladzanja ndi zifukwa zina, chikhumbo cha ogula kugula chikuchepa, ndipo msika wa ogula ukukumana ndi nthawi yowonongeka.
Makamaka, malonda a memory semiconductor adagwa kwambiri.Zogulitsa zokumbukira zatsika ndi 12.6 peresenti chaka chino kuyambira chaka chatha kufika $ 134.4 biliyoni, ndipo akuyembekezeka kutsika kwambiri ndi pafupifupi 17 peresenti chaka chamawa.
Micron Technology, yomwe ili pachitatu pagawo la DARM, idalengeza pa 22 kuti m'gawo loyamba (Seputembala-Novembala 2022) kulengeza kwa zotsatira, kutayika kwa magwiridwe antchito kudafika $ 290 miliyoni US.Kampaniyo imalosera kuwonongeka kwakukulu mu gawo lachiwiri la ndalama za 2023 mpaka February chaka chamawa.
Zimphona zina ziwiri zokumbukira, Samsung Electronics ndi SK Hannix, zikuyenera kutsika mu gawo lachinayi.Posachedwa, makampani achitetezo adaneneratu kuti SK Hynix, yomwe imadalira kwambiri kukumbukira, ikhala ndi chipereŵero choposa $800 miliyoni mgawo lachinayi la chaka chino.
Potengera zomwe zikuchitika pamsika wakukumbukira, mtengo weniweniwo ukutsikanso kwambiri.Malinga ndi bungweli, mtengo wokhazikika wa DRAM mgawo lachitatu watsika ndi 10% mpaka 15% poyerekeza ndi kotala yapitayi.Zotsatira zake, kugulitsa kwapadziko lonse kwa DRAM kudatsika mpaka $18,187 miliyoni mgawo lachitatu, kutsika ndi 28.9% kuchokera magawo awiri apitawa.Uku ndiye kutsika kwakukulu kwambiri kuyambira pamavuto azachuma padziko lonse a 2008.
NAND flash memory idaperekedwanso mochulukira, mtengo wogulitsa (ASP) mgawo lachitatu kutsika ndi 18.3% kuchokera kotala yapita, ndipo kugulitsa kwapadziko lonse kwa NAND mgawo lachitatu la chaka chino kunali $13,713.6 miliyoni, kutsika ndi 24.3% kuchokera kotala yapita.
Msika wa foundry wathetsanso nthawi yogwiritsa ntchito mphamvu 100%.Idatsika kupitilira 90% m'magawo atatu apitawa komanso kupitilira 80% atalowa gawo lachinayi.TSMC, chimphona chachikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi, ndi chimodzimodzi.Maoda amakasitomala akampani mgawo lachinayi adatsika ndi 40 mpaka 50 peresenti kuyambira kuchiyambi kwa chaka.
Zikumveka kuti kuwerengera kwa zinthu zomwe zakhazikitsidwa monga mafoni a m'manja, ma TV, mapiritsi, ndi zolemba zamakompyuta zakula, ndipo kuchuluka kwamakampani opanga ma semiconductor mgawo lachitatu kwakwera ndi 50% poyerekeza ndi kotala yoyamba.
Anthu ena m'makampaniwa amakhulupirira kuti "mpaka theka lachiwiri la 2023, pofika nyengo yomwe ikukwera kwambiri, zinthu zamakampani opanga ma semiconductor zikuyembekezeka kukhala bwino."
2. Kuchepetsa ndalama ndi mphamvu kupanga adzathetsaIC inventory vuto
Pambuyo pakuchepa kwa kufunikira kwa semiconductor komanso kuchuluka kwa zinthu, ogulitsa ma semiconductor akuluakulu adayamba ntchito zomangitsa kwambiri pochepetsa kupanga komanso kuchepetsa ndalama m'malo.Malinga ndi kafukufuku wamsika wakale wa IC Insights, ndalama zapadziko lonse lapansi za zida za semiconductor chaka chamawa zidzakhala 19% kutsika kuposa chaka chino, kufika $ 146,6 biliyoni.
SK Hynix idatero mu chilengezo chachitatu cha kotala mwezi watha kuti idaganiza zochepetsa kuchuluka kwa ndalama ndi 50% chaka chamawa poyerekeza ndi chaka chino.Micron adalengeza kuti chaka chamawa achepetsa ndalama zogulira ndalama zoposa 30% kuchokera pa pulani yoyambirira ndikuchepetsa antchito ndi 10%.Kioxia, yomwe ili pachitatu pagawo la NAND, inanenanso kuti kupanga zophika zichepetsedwa ndi 30% kuyambira Okutobala chaka chino.
M'malo mwake, Samsung Electronics, yomwe ili ndi gawo lalikulu kwambiri pamsika wamakumbukiro, idati kuti ikwaniritse zofuna zanthawi yayitali, sizingachepetse ndalama za semiconductor, koma zipitilira malinga ndi dongosolo.Koma posachedwapa, chifukwa cha kutsika komwe kulipo pakuwunika kwamakampani okumbukira komanso mitengo, Samsung Electronics ikhoza kusinthanso kupezeka koyambirira kwa chaka chamawa.
Makina a semiconductor ndi ma foundry mafakitale achepetsanso ndalama zogulira malo.Pa 27, Intel adakonza dongosolo lochepetsera ndalama zogwirira ntchito ndi US $ 3 biliyoni chaka chamawa ndikuchepetsa bajeti yogwiritsira ntchito ndi US $ 8 biliyoni mpaka US $ 10 biliyoni pofika 2025 mu chilengezo chake chachitatu chachitatu.Ndalama zoyendetsera ndalama chaka chino ndi pafupifupi 8 peresenti yotsika kuposa ndondomeko yamakono.
TSMC idati muzolengeza zake za kotala lachitatu mu Okutobala kuti kuchuluka kwa ndalama zogulira malo chaka chino kudayenera kukhala $40-44 biliyoni koyambirira kwa chaka, kuchepetsedwa ndi 10%.UMC idalengezanso kutsika kwa ndalama zomwe zakonzedwa kuchokera ku $ 3.6 biliyoni chaka chino.Chifukwa cha kuchepa kwaposachedwa kwa kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa FAB m'makampani opanga zinthu, kuchepa kwa ndalama zogulira malo chaka chamawa kumawoneka ngati kosapeweka.
Hewlett-Packard ndi Dell, opanga makompyuta akuluakulu padziko lonse lapansi, akuyembekeza kuti kufunikira kwa makompyuta aumwini kudzachepa kwambiri mu 2023. Dell adanena kuti kutsika kwa 6 peresenti ya ndalama zonse m'gawo lachitatu, kuphatikizapo kutsika kwa 17 peresenti mu gawo lake, lomwe limagulitsa laptops ndi desktops kwa ogula ndi makasitomala abizinesi.
Chief Executive wa HP Enrique Lores adati zida za PC zitha kukhala zapamwamba kwa magawo awiri otsatirawa."Pakadali pano, tili ndi zinthu zambiri, makamaka kwa ogula ma PCS, ndipo tikuyesetsa kuchepetsa zinthuzo," adatero Lores.
Pomaliza:Opanga zida zapadziko lonse lapansi ndi osamala pazolosera zabizinesi yawo ya 2023 ndipo ali okonzeka kugwiritsa ntchito njira zochepetsera ndalama.Ngakhale kuti zofunikira nthawi zambiri zikuyembekezeka kuchira mu theka lachiwiri la chaka chamawa, makampani ambiri ogulitsa sakudziwa komwe akuyambira komanso kukula kwa kuchira.
Nthawi yotumiza: Jan-09-2023