Sikuti nyumba zokha ziyenera kuchotsedwa, komanso mafoni am'manja.
Malinga ndi katswiri wofufuza pa foni yam'manja Ming-Chi Kuo,Makina a Androidakukumana ndi chiopsezo cha katundu mkulu, mu Xiaomi za lofanana 20-30 miliyoni mbali foni zida, wamphamvu kwambiri mulu mmwamba ndi purosesa, Samsung mafoni ndi magawo awo katundu, akuyembekezeka June akhoza kuchepetsedwa madzi wamba. mlingo.
Mwezi watha wa Meyi, makampani opanga mafoni aku China adadabwitsa 30 miliyoni zowerengera mafoni, kugwa kwamphamvu kuposa momwe amayembekezera, mpaka magawo atatu mwa magawo atatu, zoweta za Android system chain chain chip ndi mphete zidapitilira kukwera, magawo a Weir, ukadaulo wa Jusheng yaying'ono ndi Huideng, Masiku ochulukirachulukira adapitilira kuchuluka kwa pafupifupi zaka zitatu, pomwe kutumiza kwapadziko lonse lapansi kwa mafoni a m'manja chaka chatha, kudatsika kwambiri kuyambira 2013.
Mafoni am'nyumba otsika komanso apakati akuyambitsa nkhondo yamtengo wapatali yomwe sinachitikepo, mitundu yotsika mtengo ya Apple ndiyotsika mtengo kwambiri, kubweza komwe kulipo kwakanthawi kopitilira chaka chimodzi, momwe mungapangire komanso kudabwitsa kunyumba komanso Zakunja foni zamagetsi zigawo makampani unyolo?Kodi zinthuzo zidzachotsedwa liti?Werengani nkhaniyi ndipo muphunzira za.
1. Xiaomi, Samsung foni kufufuza zinthu
2. momwe opanga mafoni kuti kufufuza
3. Zochita zaposachedwa zaunyolo woperekera mafoni am'manja
01 The Great Android Recession
Kufuna kwapakatikati ndi kocheperako ndiko koipitsitsa
Makina a Android akukumana ndi chiwopsezo chokhala ndi zida zambiri, ndipo chilolezo chazinthu pali kuchepa kwakukulu kwachuma, chifukwa cha kufunikira kofooka kwa magawo ndi zigawo zamitundu kapena ogawa / ogulitsa, akatswiri amakhulupirira kuti miyezi 6-9 yotsatira idzawonabe kuchuluka kwa zotumizidwa chaka ndi chaka chiwongola dzanja chikuchepa.
Ndalama zamabizinesi amafoni a Xiaomi zidatsika ndi 11.1% pachaka mchaka chachitatu cha 2022, pomwe kutumiza kwa mafoni akutsika ndi 8.4% pachaka mpaka mayunitsi 40 miliyoni ndi ma ASP amafoni kutsika ndi 3% mpaka 1,058 yuan.
Kukwezeleza kuchotserazikupitilirabe, posachedwa Purezidenti wa Gulu la Xiaomi Lu Weibing adati mtengo wa RedmiK60 yake yatsopano, yomwe idatulutsidwa mu Disembala, yatsitsidwa mpaka 2,999 yuan yokha ya 12 + 512GB, kutsika mtengo kwa 300 yuan, ndi chitsimikizo chamtengo ogwiritsa omwe adagula kale mtundu uwu.
M'malo mwake, chifukwa cha kukwezedwa kumapeto kwa chaka chatha, kuwerengera kwa mafoni a Xiaomi kwa zinthu zambiri zotsika mtengo komanso zapakatikati kwatsika, koma sikunakhale komasuka ku chiwopsezo chazinthu zambiri.Kuwerengera kwake kwa "katundu wopanga" kudafika 27.3 biliyoni ya yuan mgawo lachitatu la 2022, kutsika kuchokera chaka chatha, koma kuwerengera 65% ya ndalama zake zam'manja mgawo lachitatu.
Abwana apadziko lonse a Android camp akugwiranso ntchito alibe chiyembekezo.
Ndalama za Samsung Electronics mu kotala yachinayi ya 2022 zidatsika ndi 8 peresenti pachaka ndipo phindu logwiritsa ntchito linali locheperapo kuposa momwe amaganizira kale chifukwa, mwa zina, kugulitsa pang'onopang'ono kwa mafoni a m'manja mu gawo lake la MX (Mobile eXperience).Gawo la MX la Samsung ndi gawo la gulu la bizinesi la DX (Device eXperience), ndipo ndalama zake zidatsika ndi 4% pachaka ndi 10% motsatizana mgawo lachinayi la 2022 zikaphatikizidwa ndi ndalama zochokera ku zida zapakhomo ndi zinthu zina.
Kuyimilira kwa foni yam'manja, tchipisi ta foni yam'manja ndi zida zina zamagetsi zikuchulukirachulukira, momwe mungagaye masheya awa, opanga mafoni apanga homuweki yawo.Akuluakulu a chip adawulula kuti kufunikira kwa msika wamafoni otsika komanso apakati ndiwofooka kwambiri poyerekeza ndi msika wama foni apamwamba.M'malo mwake, pamtengo wamtengo wa 1000-3000 yuan pamsika wamafoni otsika komanso apakatikati, mafoni anzeru apakhomo amaphimbanso mitundu yayikulu kwambiri.
Cholunjika kwambiri ndi kuvomereza, nkhondo yamitengo, opanga mafoni am'manja ali mu "6.18", "Double 11" ndi zina zofunika nthawi zokwezera.Novembala watha, msika wamafoni am'manja udayambitsa chikondwerero cha "wait party", kampu ya Android, 2000 yuan imatha kugula masinthidwe oyenera a "makina a ndowa", ￥1000 mtengo ndiwowonjezera kuti anthu asankhe.￥2000-3000 bulaketi ya Kuchepetsa mitengo nthawi zambiri kumakhala kowonekera kwambiri.
Mafoni am'manja a Apple kunja kwa msasa wa Android, omwe amaganiziridwanso kuti akutenga nawo gawo pakuchepetsa mitengo, chaka chatha mafoni am'manja a Apple adangotulutsidwa pasanathe mwezi umodzi, kuwonjezera pamitundu yapamwamba kwambiri yamitundu wamba idagwa pansipa pafupifupi 5200 yuan, kuyambira February 5 izi. Chaka, Apple komanso kutsika kwamitengo komweko, mitundu yapamwamba kwambiri ya iPhone 14 Pro mndandanda wamasitolo ovomerezeka osapezeka pa intaneti nthawi zambiri amachepetsa mitengo ndi pafupifupi ma yuan 700, msika wapadziko lonse lapansi wa smartphone ukuyamba mumdima.
Opanga pakukhazikitsa kwamakina atsopano kasinthidwe, Zingathenso kukhazikitsidwa pa kulingalira kwa kufufuza, amadziwa "vinyo wakale m'mabotolo atsopano", mwachidziwitso kwambiri ndi chitsanzo chingagwiritsidwe ntchito pang'onopang'ono kufananitsa kasinthidwe.
Ogwiritsa ntchito ena odziwa adanena kuti chaka chino, tikuwona mankhwala ambiri, ngakhale zinthu zazikuluzikulu, zikupitirizabe kugwiritsa ntchito zigawo zakale kwambiri, ndipo zigawo zina zomwe zili ndi zida zazikulu ziyenera kugwiritsidwa ntchito pazitsanzo zazikulu, katundu wa nthambi sangathe kugaya zinthuzo.
Kuyambira theka lachiwiri la 2021, ma foni amagetsi odula mafoni ayamba kufufuma, malinga ndi ziwerengero za Jiji Cat, mitundu yambiri mu 2021 pakukonzekera kwazinthu zina zophulika zodziwika bwino kuti zisinthe, kenako zogulitsidwa mu 2022.
Zina mwazosintha zakale zazaka zam'mbuyomu mu 2022 zimatha kuwona, monga Qualcomm Snapdragon 870, Snapdragon 778, magulu a foni yam'manja CMOS IMX766, kuphatikiza kwamakamera ang'onoang'ono a 8 + 2 MP, zida zatsopano zamasika kuphatikiza zinthu zotsogola. , kuphatikizapo katundu waukulu wa aliyense, ife kulavula Mokweza si zoonekeratu, ndipo ena ngakhale downgraded.
Kwa nthawi yayitali, kusinthana kwa mgwirizano wamakampani kunali miyezi 18, koma pofika chaka cha 2022, kusintha kwa ogula kunyumba kumafikira miyezi 30 ndi 36.Mtsogoleri wopanga mafoni am'manja adati kuyambira gawo lachitatu ndi lachinayi la 2021, kutsika kwamitengo kwakhala mutu waukulu wa opanga mafoni, kufalikira kwa msika wa MediaTek ndi Qualcomm's processor chips kwayamba kuchepetsa mitengo.
Kutsika kwamitengo yamakina atsopano kumapitilira kumayambiriro kwa chaka cha 2023, mafoni otsika, mtengo wakugonana wa Redmi sulinso wokhazikika, kuphatikiza Ace2, wowona GT Neo5 loko 2000-3000 yuan gawo lamtengo, khalani osafooka kuposa K60 kasinthidwe nthawi yomweyo mitengo kuwona mtima.
Opanga pambuyo pake momwe angathanirane ndi kutsika kwachuma, mwina mu "6.18" chikondwerero chamalonda chachaka chino zitha kuwoneka - omwe mitengo imatsika kwambiri, omwe adagulitsa movutikira, komanso kuchuluka kwazinthu.
02 Zotsatira zaposachedwa zamakampani am'manja.
Kutsetsereka, Kufooka
Zigawo zamagetsi za foni yam'manja, kukumbukira kukumbukira pafupifupi 15-20%, mapurosesa ndi tchipisi zina pafupifupi 15-20%, zowonetsera 10-20%, makamera 10-15%, RF / mlongoti 5-10%, kuwonjezera pa zipolopolo / zigawo zomangamanga, mabatire, FPC/PCB ndi zina zotero.
Mu 2022, ma foni am'manja nthawi zambiri amakhudzidwa ndi kutsika kwachuma kwa ogula, ndipo kuchuluka kwa zinthuzo kumapitilirabe kuwunikira, zomwe zimadzetsa kuwonongeka kwa magwiridwe antchito, kuphatikiza koma osangokhala ndi foni yam'manja ya MediaTek ndi Qualcomm, Texas Instruments makasitomala ambiri, mtsogoleri wa zida zozindikiritsa zala zala Huitian Technology, mtsogoleri wa lens wapadziko lonse lapansi Sunwoo Optical, opanga ma chip apanyumba a RF Chosen Micro ndi VTech, mtsogoleri wa MLCC Murata, ndi gulu la opanga ma memory chip, akubweretsa msika wovuta kwambiri mu 2023. .
Zotsatirazi ndi zotsatira zaposachedwa za kampani iliyonse yokhudzana ndi foni yam'manja.
Ma processor a foni yam'manja ndi tchipisi zina
Ndalama za MediaTek za Q4 2022 zidatsika 25% pachaka ndi 26% motsatizana.Gawo lamabizinesi am'manja, lomwe lidathandizira 52% ya ndalama za MediaTek mgawo lachinayi la 2022, likutsika ndi 25% pachaka ndi 30% motsatizana chifukwa chakuchepa kwapang'onopang'ono ku China, kufunikira kofooka kwa ogula ndi kusintha kwazinthu za smartphone OEM monga makasitomala mwaukali. sinthani zolemba zawo, gawo la MediaTek lakonzanso ndalama zoyambira 2023 mpaka $ 300- $ 3.4 biliyoni, kutsika 35- MediaTek yatsitsa ndalama mpaka $ 300-3.4 biliyoni pa Q1 2023, kutsika 35-40% pachaka 3-12% motsatizana, ndipo yawongolera milingo kuti ibwerere mwakale kumapeto kwa H1 2023.
Gawo la Qualcomm's CDMA Technologies (QCT) gawo loyamba landalama 2022/23, lomwe limaphatikizapo tchipisi ta mafoni, zida zam'tsogolo za RF, tchipisi zamagalimoto ndi zida za IoT, zidatsika ndi 11% chaka ndi chaka, pomwe ndalama za chip zidatsika ndi 18. peresenti chaka ndi chaka.Potengera momwe chuma chikuyendera komanso kufunikira kwa zinthu, kampaniyo ikuchepetsanso ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito ndipo tsopano ikuyembekeza kukwera kwamitengo yamagetsi pamakampani am'manja kupitilira mpaka theka loyamba la 2023, ndikutsika kwina mu 3G, 4G ndi 5G kutumiza m'manja mwina mu 2023 poyerekeza. ku 2022.
Mtsogoleri wa chip chozindikiritsa chala chala Huideng Technology akuyembekeza kupeza phindu lopezeka kwa eni ake a kampani ya makolo -900 miliyoni yuan mpaka -600 miliyoni yuan mchaka cha 2022, poyerekeza ndi nthawi yomweyi ya chaka cham'mbuyo, zomwe zingabweretse kutayika. .Chifukwa chachikulu chakusintha kwa magwiridwe antchito ndikuti zinthu zambiri zamakampani zimadalira msika wa smartphone, womwe umakhudzidwa ndi momwe zinthu ziliri padziko lonse lapansi, macroeconomy ndi mliri womwe ukupitilira, zomwe zimapangitsa kuchepa kwakukulu kwa msika ndi kufuna kwa makasitomala;nthawi yomweyo, mpikisano waukulu wamakampani wakulitsa kukakamiza kwamitengo yogulitsa, zomwe zidapangitsa kuchepa kwa 35% mpaka 45% pachaka pamakampani omwe amapeza ndalama mu 2022. akuyembekezeka kuchoka pa $702 miliyoni mpaka $872 miliyoni.
Ma memory chips a foni yam'manja
Ndalama za Samsung Electronics 'Q4 2022 zatsika ndi 8%, phindu logwira ntchito limatsika ndi 69% pachaka.Gulu la bizinesi la DS (Device Solutions), lomwe makamaka limayang'anira bizinesi ya semiconductor ndi chip foundry, linanena kuti ndalama zatsika ndi 24% mgawo lachinayi la 2022 poyerekeza ndi nthawi yomweyi chaka chatha ndikutsika ndi 13% kuyambira nthawi yomweyi chaka chatha. ;ndalama zake kwa chaka chathunthu 2022 anali 9,846 biliyoni anapambana (pafupifupi $79.9 biliyoni), kuwonjezeka 3% poyerekeza 2021. Kutsika kwa ndalama kwa gulu lamalondali makamaka chifukwa kasitomala-mbali katundu mayamwidwe ndi kuchepetsa kung'anima kukumbukira chip mitengo.
Ndalama za SK Hynix za kotala yachinayi ya 2022 zidatsika ndi 38% pachaka, ndikutayika kokwanira 3.52 thililiyoni ($ 2.881 biliyoni), poyerekeza ndi phindu lonse la 3.32 thililiyoni ($ 2.717 biliyoni) chaka chatha, SK Hynix woyamba kotala kutayika kuyambira gawo lachitatu la 2012 komanso kutayika kwakukulu kotala kotala pa mbiri.SK Hynix ikukhalabe ndi chiyembekezo pakukula kwa msika mu kotala yoyamba ya 2023, kuyembekezera kuti kuchuluka kwa kutumiza kwa chip ku DRAM kutsika ndi 10% ndipo kutsika kupitilira theka loyamba la chaka.
Ndalama za Micron zidatsika 39% motsatizana ndi 47% pachaka m'gawo loyamba lazachuma la 2023. Poganizira kusagwirizana kwakukulu pakati pa kupezeka ndi kufunikira kopita mu 2023, Micron akuyembekeza kuti phindu lamakampani lonse lidzatsutsidwa chaka chonse.Micron ikuchitapo kanthu kuti achepetse ndalama ndi ndalama.Micron ikuchitapo kanthu kuti achepetse ndalama ndi ndalama.
Chiwonetsero cha foni yam'manja
Chiwonetsero chapakhomo BOE 2022 magawo atatu oyambirira a ndalama zokwana 132.744 biliyoni, kutsika ndi 19.45% pachaka;phindu lochokera ku 5.291 biliyoni, kutsika ndi 73.75% pachaka.Pakati pawo, ndalama za kotala lachitatu zinali RMB 41.134 biliyoni, pansi pa 26.79% pachaka;phindu la ndalama zonse zomwe amayi adapeza anali RMB 1.305 biliyoni.2022 Kuyambira Januware mpaka Seputembala, kampaniyo idakonza zowononga katundu wosiyanasiyana wa RMB 7,482.22 miliyoni, ndipo kuwonongeka kwa kuwonongeka kudakhudza phindu lonse la -RMB 2,957.17 miliyoni.
Ndalama zamabizinesi a Samsung SDC (Samsung Display) mgawo lachinayi la 2022 zidapambana 9.31 thililiyoni (pafupifupi $ 7.6 biliyoni), kutsika ndi 3% pachaka ndi 1% motsatizana;ndalama zonse za 2022 zinali 3.438 triliyoni (pafupifupi $ 27.9 biliyoni), mpaka 8% poyerekeza ndi 2021. Samsung inati mapepala apamwamba a OLED a foni yamakono sanakhudzidwe kwambiri, ndalama zimakhalabe zolimba.
Zolemba za chip zidawonekeranso dzulo
Kodi chidzachira liti?
Makampani opanga mafoni a m'manja akhala ndi zovuta zowerengera m'mbuyomu.
Mu 2014, ndi kufika kwa nthawi ya 4G, atatu akuluakulu ogwira ntchito kuti achepetse ndalama zothandizira, "China Cool Union" kusokonezeka, bizinesi yapakhomo yapakhomo inadodometsa "200 miliyoni inventory";kotala yoyamba ya 2020 kuphulika kwa korona watsopano, zida zatsekedwa, kutumizidwa kwa mafoni aku China osakwana 50 miliyoni, otsika kwambiri m'magawo asanu ndi anayi apitawa, kuyambira pamenepo osatsekeredwa ndikubweza kubwezera, gawo lachiwiri la 2020 kutumiza oposa 100 miliyoni.
Chilolezo cha kutha kwa chaka chakhalanso ntchito yachizoloŵezi kwa opanga mafoni a m'manja, monga zochepetsera zazikulu mu unyolo wa Android kuti athetse mayankho osatsegula kumapeto kwa 2017, ndi zochepetsera kusowa kwatsopano mu Apple. zitsanzo kumapeto kwa 2018.
Potengera zomwe zidachitika ku Huawei komanso kusowa kwa mafunde apakati mu 2021, opanga mafoni akukumana ndi mpikisano wankhanza ndikuyika pachiwopsezo kuti achulukitse masheya.Kuchotsedwa kwa Huawei, komwe kumapangitsa 40% -50% ya msika wapadziko lonse wa mafoni am'manja, kumapangitsanso osewera mafoni kuyamba kukhala ndi chiyembekezo mwachimbulimbuli.Ndipo kukwera kwa mitengo kwa 2022, momwe zinthu ziliri ku Russia ndi Ukraine, mliri wapakhomo, ogula mafoni a m'manja kuti alowe m'malo mwa kuzizira, anthu ambiri amasankha kupitiliza "mwanzeru".
Mu Meyi 2022, atolankhani adafotokoza kuti kutsika kwamakampani aku China mafoni a m'manja ndi "njira yomwe ikugwa", pomwe makampani opanga mafoni ali kale ndi mafoni 30 miliyoni, kuphatikiza zinthu zopitilira 20 miliyoni zomwe zidamalizidwa ndi zopitilira 10 miliyoni zomwe zidamalizidwa pang'ono. zilipo.Strategy Analytics idatulutsa lipoti losonyeza kuti kutumizidwa padziko lonse lapansi kwa mafoni 1.2 biliyoni mu 2022 kuli potsika kwambiri kuyambira 2013.
Msika wapakhomo, msika wa smartphone waku China udzatumiza pafupifupi mayunitsi 286 miliyoni mu 2022, kutsika ndi 13.2% pachaka.M'gawo lachinayi, msika waku China waku smartphone udatumiza pafupifupi mayunitsi 72.92 miliyoni, kutsika ndi 12.6% pachaka.
Kufunika komwe sikungadzutse kukakamiza opanga chip kumtunda, tchipisi ta m'manja mwa foni yam'manja, makamaka makina a Android akukumana ndi zovuta zambiri.
Pofika chaka cha 2022 Q3, kuchuluka kwa opanga ma chip mafoni am'manja a Android adapitilirabe kukwera mu mphete yomweyo, kwa opanga ma chip mafoni am'nyumba a Weir, Josun Micro ndi Huideng Technology, mwachitsanzo, masiku owerengera amakampani atatuwa. ali pafupi kapena kupitirira masiku 250, kupitirira mulingo wapakati pa zaka zitatu zapitazi.Miyezo ya zinthu zakhala ikukwera kotala ndi kotala kuyambira 21Q1, ndipo pofika 22Q3 masiku owerengera amakampani atatuwa afika pamasiku 277, 284 ndi 247 motsatana, kupitilira masiku 113 a opanga mafoni apadziko lonse lapansi.
Kutumiza kwa mafoni apadziko lonse lapansi kumangolemba zotsatira zoyipa kwambiri m'mbiri, kuchuluka kwa tchipisi ta foni yam'manja kumapitilirabe kukhazikika, ngakhale kutsika kwa mafoni am'manja ndi chinthu chosatsutsika, koma tsopano mu Great Recession pamene pansi pa chip cycle, pamene kuchira kwa semiconductor, magwiridwe antchito a smartphone, amayesabe chidaliro cha aliyense.
Nthawi yotumiza: Feb-24-2023