Mitengo ya tchipisi imachepetsedwa, tchipisi sichikugulitsidwa.Mu theka loyamba la 2022, chifukwa chakusowa kwaulesi muogula zamagetsimsika, makampani a chip nthawi ina adayambitsa kutsika kwa mtengo, ndipo mu theka lachiwiri la chaka, chiwembucho chinabwereza.
Posachedwapa, nkhani za CCTV zinanena kuti monga gawo lalikulu la kayendetsedwe ka magetsi,Zithunzi za STMicroelectronicstchipisi nthawi ina chinali chimodzi mwazinthu zomwe zidafunidwa kwambiri mu 2021, ndipo msika udakwera mpaka pafupifupi 3,500 yuan, koma mu 2022, chip chomwecho chidatsika kuchokera pamtengo mpaka pafupifupi 600 yuan, dontho mpaka 80%.
Mwachidziwitso, mtengo wa chip china chaka chatha unali wosiyana kakhumi ndi chaka chino.Mitengo ya chip ikufanana ndi nkhumba, kukwera ndi kutsika, mtengo wapamwamba kwambiri komanso kusiyana kwamitengo yaposachedwa ndikokokomeza kwambiri, akuti atolankhani adanenanso kuti 600 yuan ya tchipisi ta STMicroelectronics, mtengo wabwinobwino mu 2020 ndi ma yuan ochepa chabe.
Kupenga kwa chip kukuwoneka kuti kwadutsa, kodi mtambo wakuda womwe unaphimba gulu lonse laukadaulo chaka chatha watsala pang'ono kukweza?Malinga ndi Bloomberg, makampani ambiri a chip amakhulupirira kuti msika wotenthawu udzakhala ndi kusintha kwakukulu kwa nthawi yayitali m'tsogolomu, ndipo ngakhale anthu ena alibe chiyembekezo kuti makampani a semiconductor adzabweretsa kuchepa koipitsitsa m'zaka khumi.
Zosangalatsa zochepa, zisoni zochepa, mitengo ya chip chigumukire, kuwonjezera pamakampani chete, ndikuwopa kuti pali misika yosawerengeka pamasewerawa.
01Chip adatsika, koma osati kwathunthu?
Kukwera kwamitengo ya tchipisi sikungasiyanitsidwe ndi kugwiritsa ntchito mwaulesi kwamagetsi padziko lonse lapansi.
Kuchokera ku lipoti laposachedwa lazachuma la TSMC, zitha kuwoneka kuti bizinesi ya smartphone, yomwe idathandizira theka la dzikolo, siyikhalanso gwero lalikulu la ndalama, ndipo zikuyembekezeredwa kuti gawo la bizinesi iyi lipitilirabe kuchepa.Malinga ndi CINNO Research, kutumizidwa kwa mafoni aku China a SoC mu theka loyamba la 2022 kunali pafupifupi 134 miliyoni, kutsika pafupifupi 16.9% pachaka.
Ponena za mbali ya PC, malinga ndi kampani yofufuza za msika ya Mercury Research, m'gawo lachiwiri la chaka chino, kutumiza kwa makompyuta apakompyuta kunatsika kwambiri m'zaka pafupifupi 30, katundu wa processor wathunthu adatsika kwambiri chaka ndi chaka kuyambira 1984. , Kugulitsa kwa mafoni a ku South Korea kunagwa 29.2% chaka ndi chaka mu July, makompyuta ndi zida zothandizira kunja zinagwa 21.9%, ndipo kutumiza kwa chip memory kunachititsa kuchepa kwa 13.5%.
Kufuna kwamtunda kumachepa, kutsika kwamitengo kukucheperachepera, ndipo mitengo mwachilengedwe imakhala yozizira.
Komabe, ziyenera kudziwidwa kuti tchipisi tating'onoting'ono tating'ono sizitenga gawo lililonse pakukulitsa makampani onse a semiconductor.Kodi tchipisi tatsika mtengo?Pansi pa nkhani ya "plummeting", palinso opanga omwe adalengeza kuwonjezeka kwa mtengo motsutsana ndi zomwe zikuchitika, monga Intel, Qualcomm, Meiman Electronics, Broadcom, ndi zina zotero.
Kutengera chitsanzo cha Intel, malinga ndi Nikkei, Intel yadziwitsa makasitomala kuti ikweza mtengo wazinthu za semiconductor mu theka lachiwiri la 2022, ndipo ikuyembekezeka kukweza mtengo wazinthu zosiyanasiyana monga ma seva oyambira ndi CPU yamakompyuta. mapurosesa ndi zotumphukira tchipisi, ndi kuwonjezeka zimasiyanasiyana malinga ndi mtundu wa Chip, otsika manambala limodzi, ndi pazipita kuwonjezeka akhoza kufika 10% mpaka 20%.
Kodi mtengo wa chips wakwera?Titha kunena kuti mtengo wa tchipisi ta ogula zamagetsi watsika mwadzidzidzi chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa kufunikira, koma kufunikira kwa ma MCU m'magawo ena ogwiritsira ntchito kukupitilira kukhala amphamvu, monga kuwongolera magalimoto ndi mafakitale, zomwe zapangitsa kuti mtengo wake ukhale wokwera kwambiri. tchipisi zogwirizana.Kuyambira pachiyambi cha kutumiza kwachilendo kwa mafoni a m'manja, tsogolo la mafakitale a chip lalembedwa mochititsa chidwi kuti likugulitsa pang'onopang'ono, koma kwenikweni, kuchepa kwa chip m'mafakitale ena sikunathe.
Makamaka tchipisi zamagalimoto, 2022 China Nansha International Integrated Circuit Industry Forum data ikuwonetsa kuti zida zaposachedwa za chip zimatha kukwaniritsa pafupifupi 31% ya zosowa za opanga magalimoto, Xpeng Motors 'He Xiaopeng adatinso kuchepa kwa chip chamakampani sikunathe. , GAC mu June anapereka deta kuti GAC anakumana ndi chip kuchepa kwa zidutswa 33,000 mu gawo lachiwiri.
Makampani opanga mphamvu zatsopano akuyenda bwino, ndipo kufunikira kwa tchipisi mtsogolo sikunganyalanyazidwe.Akuti galimoto wamba imayenera kugwiritsa ntchito tchipisi 500,magalimoto atsopano amphamvuali ndi tchipisi zambiri, chaka chatha kugulitsa magalimoto padziko lonse lapansi pafupifupi mayunitsi miliyoni 81.05, ndiye kuti, unyolo wonse wamagalimoto amafunikira tchipisi mabiliyoni 40,5.
Kuphatikiza apo, tchipisi tating'onoting'ono tidakali pamwamba paguwa la msika, mbali imodzi, unyolo wamakampani akumtunda wa tchipisi ndiukadaulo wotsogola sunazimiririke.M'mbuyomu zidanenedwa kuti chip cha TSMC cha 3nm chidzapanga zochuluka mu Seputembala, ndipo Apple ikhala kasitomala woyamba kugwiritsa ntchito chipangizo cha TSMC cha 3nm.
Akuti Apple iphatikiza purosesa yatsopano ya A17 chaka chamawa, komanso purosesa ya M3, yomwe idzagwiritse ntchito ma nanometer atatu a TSMC.Kumbali inayi, pali kuchepa kwa zida za semiconductor zapamwamba kwambiri, ndipo zotulutsa za 3nm ndi 2nm zapamwamba siziyenera kukhala zapamwamba, ndipo pangakhale kusiyana kwa 10% mpaka 20% mu 2024 ~ 2025.
Izi zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zocheperako kuti mitengo ingagwe.Zizindikiro zonse zimatiuza kuti tchipisi chikugwa ndipo makampaniwa ndi osavuta momwe amawonekera.
02 Kodi tchipisi ta ogula sakukonda?
Mbali ina ili chete, ina sikuyenda bwino.
Tchipisi chamagetsi cha ogula chadutsa nthawi yaulemerero kwambiri m'zaka ziwiri zoyambirira, ndipo chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa zinthu zamagetsi, adatsika paguwa.Pakadali pano, makampani ambiri a chip ayamba kukhala otanganidwa ndikusintha bizinesi yawo, kuchoka kwa ogula kupita kuminda yamagalimoto ndi uinjiniya.TSMC yatchula msika wamagalimoto ngati ntchito yofunika kwambiri m'zaka zingapo zikubwerazi, ndipo akuti kumbali yakumtunda, bizinesi yamagalimoto ya osewera aku MCU apanyumba monga GigaDevice Innovation, Zhongying Electronics, ndi AMEC ikuwonekeranso. .
Mwachindunji, GigaDevice adalowa mu gawo loyesa zitsanzo zamakasitomala ndi mankhwala ake oyamba amtundu wa MCU mu Marichi, ndipo akuyembekezeka kukwaniritsa kupanga kwakukulu chaka chino;Zhongying Electronics imagwiritsidwa ntchito makamaka pa gawo lowongolera thupi la MCU, ndipo ikuyembekezeka kubwereranso pakati pa chaka;AMEC Semiconductor adawonetsa kutsimikiza mtima kwake kupanga tchipisi zamagalimoto pamawonekedwe ake, ndipo IPO yake ikukonzekera kukweza yuan 729 miliyoni, pomwe 283 miliyoni ya yuan idzagwiritsidwa ntchito pofufuza ndi chitukuko cha magalimoto.
Kupatula apo, kuchuluka kwa kumasulira kwa zida zamagalimoto zam'nyumba ndi zowongolera ndi zosakwana 1%, kuchuluka kwa masensa kumachepera 4%, komanso kuchuluka kwamagetsi amagetsi, kukumbukira, ndi kulumikizana ndi 8%, 8%, ndi 3%, motero.Kupanga magalimoto amtundu watsopano wapakhomo ndikowopsa, ndipo chilengedwe chonse chanzeru kuphatikiza kuyendetsa pawokha chidzawononga ma semiconductors ambiri pambuyo pake.
Ndipo zidzakhala zovuta bwanji kupitiliza kumamatira ndi tchipisi ta ogula?
M'mbuyomu zidanenedwa kuti Samsung kamodzi idayimitsa kugula magawo onse abizinesi, kuphatikiza mapanelo, mafoni am'manja ndi tchipisi tokumbukira, ndipo ngakhale opanga kukumbukira ambiri aku Korea adzachitapo kanthu kuti achepetse mitengo yopitilira 5% posinthanitsa ndi malonda.Nuvoton Technology, yomwe imagwira ntchito pamagetsi ogula, idawonanso phindu lake likukwera kuposa nthawi za 5.5 chaka chatha, ndi phindu la NT $ 7.27 pagawo.Ntchitoyi idakhala yosasunthika mu Epulo ndi Meyi chaka chino, pomwe ndalama zidatsika ndi 2.18% ndi 3.04% motsatana mwezi ndi mwezi.
Wina sangafotokoze chilichonse, koma chidziwitso cha Wind chikuwonetsa kuti kuyambira pa Meyi 9, makampani a semiconductor a 126 padziko lonse lapansi adalengeza malipoti awo azachuma kotala loyamba la 2022, pomwe 16 adakumana ndi kutsika kwapachaka kwa phindu lililonse kapena ngakhale kutayika.Tchipisi za ogula zikufulumizitsa kugwa kwawo, ndipo magalimoto ndi kayendetsedwe ka mafakitale zakhala malo otsatirawa ofunafuna phindu pamsika wa chip.
Koma kodi ndi zophweka monga momwe zikuwonekera?
Makamaka kwa opanga zida zapakhomo, kusuntha kuchokera kumunda wamagetsi ogula kupita kumunda wamagalimoto ndikoposa kutentha kwa msika.Choyamba, tchipisi tapakhomo tikuyenera kukhala ndi kutsika, ndipo gawo la ogula limakhala loyamba, lowerengera 27%.Ngakhale mutayang'ana padziko lapansi, msika wapakhomo ndiwonso msika waukulu kwambiri wa semiconductor, zomwe zikuwonetsa kuti mu 2021, malonda aku China akumtunda kwa msika wa semiconductor adafika pa 29.62 biliyoni ya madola aku US, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi chaka kwa 58%, ndi dziko lonse lapansi. msika waukulu kwambiri wa semiconductor, womwe umawerengera 28.9% yazogulitsa zonse zapadziko lonse lapansi za semiconductor.
Kachiwiri, makampani opanga ma chip ali ndi phindu lalikulu pama foni anzeru ndi magawo okhudzana ndi 5G.Mwachitsanzo, kutumiza kwa TSMC kumakhala 70% ya msika wamagalimoto a MCU, koma tchipisi zamagalimoto zimangopanga 3.31% ya ndalama zake za 2020.Pofika Q1 2022, magawo a smartphone ndi HPC a TSMC azitenga 40% ndi 41% ya ndalama zonse motsatana, pomwe galimoto ya IOT DCE ndi ena azingokhala 8%, 5%, 3% ndi 3% motsatana.
Zofunikira ndizochepa, koma phindu likadalipo, ndipo vuto ndilomwe limakhala mutu waukulu pamsika wa semiconductor.
03 Pambuyo pakukula, ogula adasangalala?
Mitengo ya tchipisi ikagwedezeka, osangalala kwambiri ndi ogula, mafoni a m'manja, magalimoto ngakhale zida zapanyumba zanzeru zakhala malo odyetserako anthu omwe amayembekezeredwa nthawi zambiri mitengo ya tchipisi ikatsika, makamaka mafoni am'manja.Posakhalitsa chiwonongeko cha mtengo wa chip, panali anthu akufuula pamapulatifomu kuti agule mafoni a m'manja mu theka lachiwiri la chaka chino.
Mwamsanga pambuyo pake, mtengo wa mphamvu zatsopano unachepetsedwa, mtengo wa zinthu zamagetsi unachepetsedwa, ndipo mtengo wa zipangizo zapakhomo unachepetsedwa… Mawu ngati awa amabwera ndi kupita.Komabe, palibe chizolowezi chodziwikiratu pakali pano ngati padzakhala kutsika kwamitengo kofananira pagulu lazogulitsa, koma kunena mosabisa, kutsika kwamitengo ya chip uku sikungabweretse kutsika kwakukulu kwamitengo pamsika wa ogula.
Yang'anani koyamba pa malo okhudzidwa kwambiri a mafoni a m'manja, m'zaka zaposachedwapa, opanga mafoni a m'manja akukweza mitengo nthawi zonse, kukhala chete kwapansi, swagger yapamwamba, kuthekera kwa kuchepetsa mtengo kwa kanthawi kochepa kwambiri.Kuphatikiza apo, phindu lalikulu la opanga mafoni am'manja silinakhale lalitali.Pamsonkhano wa Madivelopa a Huawei, Yang Haisong, wachiwiri kwa purezidenti wa dipatimenti yamapulogalamu ogula a Huawei, adati phindu la opanga mafoni aku China ndi lotsika kwambiri, ndipo gawo la msika wapanyumba ndi loposa theka, koma phindu limakhala pafupifupi 10. %.
Komanso, chip chilidi pansi, koma mtengo wa zigawo zina si waulemu, monga masensa ndi zowonetsera, zitsanzo zapamwamba zikuchulukirachulukira, opanga mafoni a m'manja pa zofunikira zopezera katundu mwachibadwa zimakhala zovuta kwambiri. akuti OPPO, Xiaomi kamodzi adasinthiratu masensa apadera a Sony ndi Samsung.
Mwanjira imeneyi, ndi dalitso kwa ogula kuti mtengo wa mafoni a m'manja sukukwera.
Kuyang'ana mphamvu zatsopano, Chip chodziwika bwino chomwe chinadula mtengo nthawi ino sichinali m'munda wa kupanga magalimoto, osanenapo, kuwonjezeka kwa mtengo wamagetsi atsopano amagetsi mu theka loyamba la chaka sichinali ngakhale, ndipo chifukwa kumbuyo sikunali vuto lonse la chips.Mtengo wazinthu zambiri ukukwera, kaya ndi faifi tambala, zitsulo, aluminiyamu kuphatikizapo maelekitirodi abwino ndi oipa, mtengo umangowonjezeka, mtengo wa mabatire umakhalabe wokwera, ndipo zinthu zosiyanasiyana mwachiwonekere sizingangodziwika ndi chip.
Zoonadi, bwalo lopanga galimoto silingabwerenso pang'ono, chifukwa chaka chino, tchipisi totulutsa kuwala kwa LED ndi tchipisi ta driver tatsika mtengo ndi 30% -40%, zomwe mosakayikira zidzagwira ntchito ina mtengo wotsatira wa mwini galimoto.
Kuphatikiza pa mafoni anzeru, kukhudzidwa kwakukulu kwa tchipisi ta ogula mwina ndi zida zanzeru zapakhomo monga zoziziritsa kukhosi ndi mafiriji, ndipo kufunikira kwa ma MCU pazida zitatu zazikulu zoyera zapanyumba sikutsika, kuchokera pa 570 miliyoni mu 2017 mpaka zopitilira 700. miliyoni mu 2022, pomwe ma MCU owongolera mpweya amakhala opitilira 60%.
Komabe, tchipisi tomwe timagwiritsidwa ntchito m'munda wanyumba wanzeru kwenikweni ndi tchipisi tating'ono tokhala ndi njira zakumbuyo, zomwe zimatsutsana kwambiri ndi njira zapamwamba monga 3nm ndi 7nm, nthawi zambiri kuposa 28nm kapena 45nm.Mukudziwa, tchipisi tating'onoting'ono timeneti timagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri chifukwa chaukadaulo wawo wotsika, ndipo mtengo wagawo siwokwera.
Kwa makampani opanga zida zapanyumba, ukadaulo wocheperako umatanthauza kuti amatha kudzikwaniritsa.Mu 2017, gawo la Gree la microelectronics linakhazikitsidwa;Mu 2018, Konka adalengeza kukhazikitsidwa kovomerezeka kwa gawo laukadaulo la semiconductors;Mu 2018, Midea idalengeza kuti ikuyamba kupanga tchipisi ndikukhazikitsa Meiren Semiconductor Co., Ltd., ndipo mu Januware 2021, Meiken Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd.
Malinga ndi ziwerengero zosakwanira, makampani ambiri azida zam'nyumba monga TCL, Konka, Skyworth, ndi Haier adayala gawo la semiconductor, mwa kuyankhula kwina, gawo ili silimakakamizidwa ndi tchipisi nkomwe.
Pansi, kapena ayi?Kutsika kwamitengo ya chip uku kuli ngati kuwombera konyenga, opanga kumtunda amakhala osakondwa kwakanthawi, osasiya ogula.
Nthawi yotumiza: Dec-29-2022